A pending court case in New Zealand involving a man from the low-lying island
of Kiribati could have profound implications worldwide on the future of
migration due to climate change.
The 37-year-old is seeking refugee status, but not because he is being
persecuted back home, one of the definitions of a refugee. Rather, he says,
flooding and rising sea levels due to climate change are making it too dangerous
for him, his wife and three children to return to Kiribati. The island nation,
with a population of about 103,000, is made up of 33 coral atolls in the
Pacific, half way between Hawaii and Australia.
The case is to go to court on Oct. 16. New Zealand immigration officials have
rejected the man’s previous claims, and most jurists are betting he’ll lose his
case in the high court. But his lawyer, Michael Kidd, told The Associated Press
he will, if necessary, appeal the case all the way to the Supreme
Court.
Whatever the outcome, the legal battle brings attention to a question that
academics, researchers, environmentalists, politicians and diplomats have been
puzzling over: what, if anything, should be done to aid the projected 200
million to 1 billion people who may be displaced by climate change over the next
50 years?
Simulations, computer models and analyses vary widely as to which cities and
regions will be the worst affected. The one thing most analysts agree on, in
theory, is that both developed and developing nations need to look at ways to
deal with some of the migration or displacement expected because of climate
change. Not all of those solutions will involve moves to other countries; they
might include increased sustainable development, aid and migration within one’s
country, experts advise.
But many states, including Canada, would prefer not to deal with the issue at
all, says Jose Rivera, senior adviser to the director of international
protection at the UNHCR. “There is agreement today that climate change will
result in changing weather patterns,” he says. “The problem is many states have
not taken climate change seriously. They haven’t begun to do the forward
thinking and planning for populations in harm’s way.”
That doesn’t mean experts haven’t been looking at possible solutions.
Think-tanks, academics and experts on migration, human rights and the
environment have all proposed ideas to deal with the waves of migration that
might result from climate change.
Some would like to see a new UN convention to deal with the problem; others
want the creation of a new refugee category — climate change refugees. “There
are no visas for immigration or refugee status for climate change,” explains
Rivera. “There is no legal justification for a climate change refugee or climate
change immigrant. I love polar bears and we need to worry about the effect on
flora and fauna, but hey, who’s thinking about human beings in all of
this?”
Some believe it is important to allow those who may face displacement to stay
home by creating a more sustainable economy and moving them from harm’s way
internally. While others suggest countries could use regulations within their
current immigration laws, such as temporary protection, which the United States
did after the Haitian earthquake. Or, as is the case in Canada, humanitarian
grounds could be invoked to deal with the waves of displaced migrants due to
climate change.
Carbon gas emissions
But “the elephant in the room” in this debate is an international protocol to
cut carbon gas emissions worldwide, Rivera says. Many environmentalists worry
that in opening up a discussion on the displacement of people, the international
focus might shift away from the negotiations to curb emissions.
However, given how much damage has already been done to the environment, mass
displacement could be a very real possibility due to flooding or drought. And
that needs to be planned for, many argue.
“We know people are going to be forced to leave their homes because of
climate change,” says Elizabeth Ferris, a senior fellow at the Brookings
Institute and co-director of the Brookings-LSE Project on Internal
Displacement.
But Ferris acknowledges there’s not really a consensus on how many people
will be on the move or where they will go. She believes it’s critical to
strengthen the capacity of local governments in the developing world and local
communities in the developed world, such as in Canada’s Arctic, to
cope.
But even that may be too much. “People are just ignoring it in the United
States,” says Ferris. She believes the issue of migration due to climate change
has slipped on the international agenda. Her sentiments were echoed by one
expert, who asked not to be identified. He told the Star he was “disheartened”
by what he heard at a recent meeting of international officials discussing
slow-onset climate change and its impact on people.
Like most other nations, Canada has no separate policy when it comes to the
possibility of migration due to climate change.
“Citizenship and Immigration Canada is not actively examining this issue,”
writes spokesperson Nancy Caron. “We are currently focused on implementing
transformational changes to our immigration system to create a fast, flexible
and fair system that will meet the new and emerging needs of Canada’s labour
market and the Canadian economy, while maintaining our traditions of family
reunification and responding to current humanitarian needs.”
Neither Immigration Minister Chris Alexander nor Foreign Affairs Minister
John Baird would comment on the issue.
“Climate change hasn’t been a high-profile issue for this government,” says
Daniel Scott, director of the Interdisciplinary Centre on Climate Change at the
University of Waterloo. “All of the countries that are major contributors (to
carbon emissions) should be actively engaged . . . Canada should be part of the
dialogue to look at how we can support future climate migrants.”
Scott and others fear Canada will wait until the United States or the
European Union develops a policy. “As the current administration is trying to
more closely align border security, passport and immigration policies with the
United States,” explains Scott, “until they act, it will be one more reason why
Canada won’t act.”
Canada’s inaction doesn’t surprise Janet Dench, the executive director of the
Canadian Council of Refugees. “I don’t see any interest in the Canadian
government shifting toward a policy that is looking at future international
needs,” she says. “The decision has been to reorient our immigration policy in
to what is perceived as Canada’s immediate economic needs.”
Dench believes Canada has a deeper responsibility to all refugees, including
those affected by climate change. “It’s important for us to recognize our role
and responsibility in the world rather than shutting ourselves off, and
environmental change is one of the areas where it’s brought home to us. We can’t
just shut the door on the outside world and only look after
ourselves.”
But what action Canada and other developed countries should take is still up
for grabs in Dench’s mind. She falls short of calling for the creation of a
separate category of “environmental refugees,” suggesting the rights of all
migrants should be looked at by governments around the world, rather than just
adding another category for those who are forced to flee for environmental
reasons.
Canada isn’t alone in sitting on the sidelines. Other countries seem equally
reluctant to put policies in place or aren’t sure which policies would work.
When the UNHCR was celebrating its 60th anniversary in 2011, the issue was
brought up. Most signatories to the UN Convention on the Status of Refugees
attending that meeting rejected dealing with the issue of climate change
migration and displacement head on, agreeing only to “engage in soft dialogue
and collect and share experience and practices in handling such
displacement.”
But out of the ashes of that meeting came an initiative by Norway and
Switzerland to look at possible solutions for populations threatened with
displacement because of climate change. Mexico, Costa Rica, Bangladesh, Kenya,
Germany, Philippines and Australia agreed to come on board.
And in 2012 the Nansen Initiative, named partially in recognition of the
first UN High Commissioner for Refugees, Fridtjof Nansen, was born. Over the
next two years it is holding consultations in five regions with plans to have a
report ready in 2015. Officials are hoping the consultations can kick-start
global action.
“The important thing is for all governments to start to think about it,
including Canada and Switzerland, my own country,” says Walter Kaelin, professor
of law at the University of Bern and special envoy for the Nansen Initiative.
“Because it is a real challenge and challenges need to be addressed.
“If we’re looking at the potential magnitude of the problem, ad hoc answers
aren’t enough. We need a debate about what would be a good principled approach,”
Kaelin says.
“We have to talk about climate change migration, forced displacement. We need
a kind of tool box. We have to invest in adaptation measures so people can stay
longer, prepare people for migration with dignity; invest in training people so
they can compete abroad . . . In the past we’ve had bad experiences with
relocation during the colonial period. We have to avoid past
mistakes.”
Most academics and researchers agree with Kaelin that preparing for possible
waves of climate refugees must be multi-faceted.
For Susan Martin, developing adaptation strategies and policies that help
people remain where they are, if feasible, is one avenue. Those endeavours would
include working on longer-term strategies, such as researching drought-resistant
seeds, new farming techniques and reforestation to deal with creeping
desertification.
But she also suggests that migration itself is an adaptation strategy that
must be planned for. “We tend to see it as a failure of adaptation,” says
Martin, a professor of international migration and director of the Institute for
the Study of International Migration at Georgetown University. “But for
millennia people have moved as a positive means to climate change. That’s what
we want to have happen . . . We don’t want people to move because it’s too late
to do anything else, but in a manner to anticipate where things are
going.”
For Justin Ginnetti, senior adviser at the International Displacement
Monitoring Centre in Geneva, multi-faceted preparation includes computer
modelling that identifies the risks to certain populations in the developing
world, including simple things such as home construction materials — concrete
versus mud — and whether or not they live in a flood plain or by a river
bank.
“If governments and communities address the two variables that are within
their control, then they can go along way to reducing the risk of displacement
occurring in the first place,” says Ginnetti. “And that’s really in everyone’s
interest.”
for the eclipse this Sunday.
