Clues to origins of life may be found in Sudbury, Ont. crater

Impact crater in Sudbury, Ont. provides valuable geological information for a team of researchers

CBC News

Posted: May 23, 2016


Artist's conception of a giant impactor. (courtesy NASA)

A research team headed by Dublin's Trinity College in Ireland have found geological clues in Sudbury, Ont. that may help unlock more secrets of life's origins.

University of Bern PhD student Edel O'Sullivan spent parts of three summers studying the Sudbury crater to better understand effects of a meteor's impact 1.8 billion years ago.

The accessibility of the crater, and the extent to which it was preserved, allowed O'Sullivan's team the opportunity to recreate the environment prior to, and immediately following, the meteor's impact.

Once the site was accessed, the team could then extract samples and view the various chemistry sequences of the region's geology.

Edel O'Sullivan, PhD candidate at the University of Bern, Switzerland. The results of O'Sullivan's research will have a significant impact on other geological studies, as only two other craters, Vredefort in South Africa and Chicxulub in Mexico, share the Sudbury crater's characteristics but are not as well-preserved. (Edel O'Sullivan)

"The whole place was just blasted apart," said O'Sullivan, "the rock was melted, shattered, all fell back in and you could see that there was a huge hydro-thermal system just boiling away in the crater."

Although impact craters are typically associated with destruction, O' Sullivan says that some believe these hydro-thermal systems provide the proper conditions for new life by creating a shelter against harsh conditions.

Listen to Edel O'Sullivan discuss the research team's findings on CBC Sudbury's Morning North.

The results of O'Sullivan's research will have a significant impact on other geological studies, as only two other craters, Vredefort in South Africa and Chicxulub in Mexico, share the Sudbury crater's characteristics but are not as well-preserved.

The interest in the Sudbury crater isn't confined to geologists, said O'Sullivan.

Biologists, geneticists and environmentalists will likely take note of the team's findings, which O'Sullivan hopes will open the door for new research into impact craters.

"It's really kind of a multidisciplinary project," said O'Sullivan, "there's a really, really strong interest in the origin of life."

Read O'Sullivan's research here.

These 5 maps explain Canada's strategy

George Friedman

Mauldin Economics
May 19, 2016


REUTERS/Chris WattieCanadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

Similar to Russia and Australia, Canada is a vast and—to a large degree—uninhabitable country due to climate and/or terrain. That does not mean it is a desolate country. It is, however, a very small country when you exclude the unlivable areas. Its population is oddly distributed due to this reality.

Geography has played a major role in how the country has developed. It affects national and provincial politics, transportation and trade, and national security and foreign policy. We will also look at how the US exerts a heavy influence in some of these areas.

Mauldin Economics

Canada is the world’s second largest nation by area. But with 35 million people, it is only the 39th most populated country and ranks 230th in terms of population density. The map above shows that Canada’s population is clustered in a long and narrow band along its southern border.

In fact, a large share of the population lives within 100 miles (160 kilometers) of the US border. The densest population is in the east, running just east of Detroit through Quebec to the Maritime Provinces on the eastern coast. Another populated area, though not particularly dense, runs from Winnipeg to the base of the Canadian Rockies. Notable is the low population in most of Ontario, save for the Toronto-Ottawa corridor.

Mauldin Economics

One crucial geographic feature is the Canadian Shield. It is an area formed mainly of volcanic rock covered with a thin layer of soil.

The Shield—plus a tough climate—has made much of Ontario, Quebec, and other regions difficult to inhabit. This has forced population centers to develop southward.

In addition, the Rocky Mountains run south through western Alberta and much of British Columbia. This is another example of how geography, as well as climate, limits the amount of livable land.

The peculiar geography of Canada has also created inherent internal problems. For example, east-west transportation is heavily concentrated within the narrow population corridor along the US border. For most of Canada, north-south transport into the US is more efficient than routes that don’t cross the border.

Further, its unique geographical features and historical factors have shaped Canada into a confederation, rather than a federation. The provinces, in many areas, have more effective authority than Ottawa. In the extreme, a persistent faction in Quebec seeks to secede from the confederation. Still, political differences aside, the provinces have an interest in staying together.

At different moments in history, though, the economic, political, or security interests of some provinces have relied more on the US than other parts of Canada. At these times, provincial self-interests have led to discord. So, geography poses a significant potential fault line in Canada.

Geography also distinguishes Canada from the United States. There are two components to this distinction. First, as the map above shows, the Canadian Shield is almost entirely in Canada. Only a tiny part of it extends into the US. Second, Canada lies outside the US river transport system.


Mauldin Economics

The most important economic driver in the US through the 19th century was agriculture. What made agriculture a viable business in the area between the Rockies and Appalachians was a vast network of navigable rivers. This network flowed into the Mississippi River. From there it was an easy float to the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean.

This system of waterways created vast wealth in the US. Yet, the way the US-Canada border was drawn west of the Great Lakes meant none of Canada’s rivers run into this highway to the oceans.

The Canadian river system does carry a large amount of cargo for export. Canadian producers can ship their goods to sea ports in Canada, or down south to the rivers. Granted, this is no longer a decisive difference between the two countries, but it was once. Therefore, the Shield and the river system together explain the divergence between the US and Canada.

Today, relations between the two countries are centered on trade. Last year, Canadian exports to the US totaled roughly $310 billion, while US exports to Canada were almost $280 billion. The US is Canada’s largest trading partner. Canada is the US’s second largest trading partner. It’s obvious why the north-south trade partnership is so important.

Mauldin Economics

If we drill into the trade numbers, we see that Canada is a leading importer for many American states.


Mauldin Economics

At the same time, most of the US relies on Canada as its main export market. The only region outside the Canadian orbit is the Southwest, where the primary export destination is Mexico. In other words, although the balance of trade is slightly in Canada’s favor, many individual US states depend heavily on Canada to buy their exports.

Therefore, from a strategic standpoint, Canada’s core interest in the US is to maintain strong economic relations. This is not at risk because it is a shared interest rooted at the all-important local level.

Reuters/Kacper Pempel

A member of Canada's 3rd Division, composed with a platoon of 3rd Battalion and Princess Patricia's Light Infantry (C) discuss with two members of the U.S. Army's 173rd Infantry Brigade Combat Team as they participate at a NATO-led exercise "Orzel Alert" held together with Poland's 6th Airborne Brigade in Bledowska Desert in Chechlo, near Olkusz, south Poland.

In other areas, Canada’s strategic interests must align with those of the US. There are three reasons for this. First, the well-being of the US is a Canadian national concern. Second, Canada cannot defend itself from a global threat. Third, one look at a map and it is obvious that Canada is exposed to any threat the US is exposed to.

This does not mean that the Canadians are forced to cooperate on all American foreign activities and wars. The US will not break economic relations over these matters, nor is Canada essential to US global activities. But in the long run, the fact is that Canada and the US don’t need a formal alliance. They are joined at the hip.

In extreme situations, Canada has no choice but to align with the US, as its failure is Canada’s failure. In the short term, Canadian cooperation with the US buys it a place at the table when the US considers changes to its actions or strategies. And those shifts can influence Canada disproportionately.

Canada can go its own way only within limits. Not because the US demands it, but because geography has closely linked Canada to the US. This may not be the prevailing view in Canada, where many see more room for maneuver. But Canada is constantly drawn back into reality by the constraints posed by its geography.

An example is the reputed Northwest Passage, which may be opened up due to effects of global warming. The Russians and others are interested in the possibilities this offers. So are the Canadians. But the Canadians cannot afford the cost of a naval fleet capable of a forward defense of their interests should the Russian navy challenge Canadian sovereignty in the region.

If a defensive force that can protect the region is established, it will come from the US Navy. It is a given that this military project, if needed, will be a joint venture. After all, both the US and Canada have identical interests in the passage. And even if a joint military project is unnecessary, both countries will want to use the Northwest Passage.


Jonathan Ernst/Reuters

U.S. President Barack Obama and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau arrival ceremony at the White House in Washington March 10, 2016.
Last Words

Canada’s strategic interests align with American interests because Canada is heavily integrated with the US. And Canada alone cannot provide a strategic defense against potential enemies. Given Canadian dependence on the US for trade—a less significant partnership to the US due to the size of the American economy—it is clear that Canada has a single overriding strategic interest: maintaining close relations with the United States.

Atmospherics can shift. But the reality remains constant.


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Lyme disease increases in Canada as climate, land use change

Ticks can now establish thriving populations in areas that used to be too cold for them

CBC News

Posted: May 17, 2016

Scientists and public health authorities drag a white sheet through woody, brushy areas or tall grass to check for ticks that can carry Lyme disease. (Mel Evans/Associated Press)





The reason Lyme disease is on the rise in Canada is thought to be a combination of greater awareness, increased reporting and climate change.

"We've truly noticed the tick is spreading for sure. What its relation to climate change, don't know," said Dr. Gregory Taylor, Canada's chief public health officer.

In 2015, more than 700 cases of Lyme disease were reported to the Public Health Agency of Canada, compared with 140 cases in 2009.

Lyme disease became a nationally notifiable disease in 2009, which makes it a priority for the federal, provincial and territorial governments to monitor and control.

As more cases arise, doctors are still getting used to reporting them to public health departments, said Dr. David Fisman of the Dalla Lana School of Public Health in Toronto. He has studied how ticks expanded northward into the most heavily populated areas of Canada.

Lyme disease increase alarms Canada's top doctor
Beginner's guide to Lyme disease, CBC's Nature of Things

"I think the increase is real and I think the culprit is climate change," Fisman said.

Fisman is also studying El Nino effects of warmer, wetter weather on ticks. "The ticks can now establish endemic thriving populations in areas that used to be too cold for them to complete their life cycles."

8 Lyme disease prevention tips

The ticks' habitat is also changing. More ticks are surviving the winter and making it through the grass at the edge of forests, said Sandy Smith, a professor in the forestry department at the University of Toronto, where she studies invasive forest pests.

The blacklegged tick that spreads the Lyme disease bacteria can lurk on grass and climb onto a passing host. (CDC)

As people hike and bike in wooded and grassy areas, a tick can climb on. The longer it's attached, the greater the possibility it can transmit Lyme disease bacteria. People have hours to remove the tick before that happens.

Blacklegged ticks spread Lyme disease throughout most of Canada and the western blacklegged tick does so in British Columbia. The ticks feed on a series of hosts, starting with small mammals such as mice.

Ticks are tied to populations of white-tailed deer and rodents. As hunting declines and deer numbers increase in Canada, the large animals act as a greater reservoir for their ticks, Smith said.

Deer are good at spreading blacklegged ticks but they generally don't carry it far, said Janet Sperling, a PhD candidate in entomology at the University of Alberta and a board member at CanLyme, which advocates for people with the disease.

When Lyme disease became a nationally notifiable disease in 2009, it became a priority to monitor and control. (Health Canada)

Birds can carry ticks for long distances and drop them in unexpected places, Sperling said. "There is nowhere in Canada where Lyme disease can be ignored."

Sperling also said there is no question ticks are spreading in Canada and much of the change is due to changing climate and land use changes. With files from CBC's Amina Zafar

NASA Maps Show How Fast New Orleans Is Sinking

George Dvorsky

5/16/16

Gizmodo

EARTH SCIENCES

Credits: NASA/JPL-Caltech, Esri

Using NASA airborne radar, scientists have shown the degree to which New Orleans and its surrounding areas are sinking each year. Mostly caused by groundwater extraction, it’s yet another disaster in the making.


These new maps, produced by researchers at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the Center for Geoinformatics at Louisiana State University, are the most accurate and detailed yet of the the region’s sinking pattern. The data for the study, which now appears in Journal of Geophysical Research, was collected from June 2009 to July 2012.






Subsidence rates in New Orleans from 2009 to 2012. The red stars represent locations where levees breached during Hurricane Katrina. (Credits: NASA/JPL-Caltech, Esri)

Geologists call this elevation-dropping process “subsidence,” and it’s typically driven by a combination of both natural and human-caused factors. In New Orleans, it’s caused by groundwater pumping and dewatering (i.e. pumping away surface water to prevent standing water and soggy ground).


The most severe sinking was observed upriver along the Mississippi River around major industrial areas, and in Michoud. Both of these areas experience drops of about two inches each year. Other notable drops in elevation were measured in the city’s Upper and Lower 9th Ward, and in Metairie, where the measured ground movements were linked to water levels in the Mississippi River. At Bonnet Carré Spillway east of Norco (the area’s last line of protection against springtime river floods breaching the levees), the scientists detected upwards of 1.6 inches of annual subsidence.





Top: Subsidence rates around Norco, Louisiana, and the location of flood protection levees (shown in white). Bottom: Location of water wells active in 2012, local industry and the Bonnet Carre Spillway. According to NASA, “the highest subsidence forms a bowl within the refinery site to the south of the river.” (Credits: NASA/JPL-Caltech, Esri)

That might not sound like much, but these slow and steady drops add up quickly over time. Assuming this rate of subsidence continues, it could translate to an eight-feet drop in the most severely affected regions. Not only would this make flooding worse, but it would also expand the geographic reach of encroaching inland waters.

Back in 2005, around 80 percent of New Orleans and large tracts of neighboring parishes became flooded, and the waters lingered for weeks. Considering how climate change is contributing to rising ocean levels, this has the makings of yet another major disaster.




Ground elevation movements in Jefferson Parish, Louisiana, from June 2009 to July 2012. )Credits: NASA/JPL-Caltech, Esri)

New Orleans is not the only part of the world experiencing this problem. Sections of China’s Yellow River are dropping at a rate of three feet every four years. Bangkok also has this problem. The only known method to prevent this condition is by pumping less groundwater, which is quite difficult to enforce when many people own their own water wells.


The new study will be used for planning purposes, including efforts to remediate and reverse subsidence processes. Data will also be used to inform flood modeling and response strategies.


[Journal of Geophysical Research]

How Global Warming Is Making Some Diseases Even Scarier

The link between climate and vector-borne infections.

Gregory Barber

Mother Jones

MAY 14, 2016




mycteria/Shutterstock

Americans should expect a surge in deaths from heat waves, flooding, and respiratory disease as the climate warms, according to a wide-ranging White House report released last month. And what spells disaster for humans could also be a boon to infectious microbes and the animals that transmit them.

The guest on this week's episode of Inquiring Minds is Ben Beard, associate director for climate change at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. He's one of more than 100 researchers who contributed to the report, and his specialty is vector-borne diseases. These illnesses—which include Lyme disease, dengue fever, and Zika virus—are transmitted by other animals, especially insects such as mosquitos and ticks. Beard talks with co-host Indre Viskontas about how global warming is poised to alter their spread and whether the changes we're already seeing can be attributed to climate change. "These diseases are emerging in the United States," he says. "There are more and more cases every year." You can listen to the full interview with Beard below:

It's no coincidence that vector-borne illnesses are among the most "climate-sensitive" diseases, he adds, increasing in range and incidence when environmental conditions are favorable to the critters that harbor them. In some regions of the United States, recent decades have brought longer, warmer summers and shorter, milder winters. That's played a role in the northward creep of tick-transmitted Lyme disease and seasonal flare-ups of the West Nile virus, which is carried by mosquitos. But the issue isn't simply the expanding range of those diseases; at warmer temperatures, mosquitos can speed up their life cycles, Beard explains. Under hotter conditions, viruses like West Nile will typically replicate faster in the cold-blooded mosquito, making it more likely to be transmitted through each bite.

US Global Change Research Program

There's also concern, Beard says, about local transmission of diseases typically associated with the tropics—he points to recent cases of dengue and chikungunya in Florida (both are transmitted by mosquitos). But he cautions that the precise causes remain poorly understood; the recent uptick could be linked as much to increases in global trade and travel as it is to changes in the climate.

But one takeaway is clear. "The brunt of this will be borne by the poorer, more tropical regions of the world," Beard says. These are communities with climates that are already hospitable to disease-bearing insects, and in which the basic layers of prevention—from air conditioning to insect repellent—are scarce. They're also less likely to have access to quick diagnosis and treatment, he says, which can increase the likelihood that mosquitos or other vectors will spread the illness from one infected individual to an entire household.

Inquiring Minds is a podcast hosted by neuroscientist and musician Indre Viskontas and Kishore Hari, the director of the Bay Area Science Festival. To catch future shows right when they are released, subscribe to Inquiring Minds via iTunes or RSS.You can follow the show on Twitter at @inquiringshow, like us on Facebook, and check out show notes and other cool stuff on Tumblr.

These 4 maps show how China is dominating global trade

Jeff Desjardins, Visual Capitalist

Apr. 28, 2016, 6:49 PM

Jerry Lampe/ReutersChina's national flag is raised during the opening ceremony of the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games at the National Stadium, August 8, 2008. The stadium is also known as the Bird's Nest.

We often use big, overarching ideas to help us understand the world and the opportunities contained within. These narratives, which can change over time, are used to create context. They give us a frame of reference for comprehending the news and events that affect our outlook on things.

China’s economic prowess is one of these new paradigms that has emerged, but many people still can’t really wrap their heads around the scale or scope of it.

It’s happened suddenly, and the ramifications are extremely relevant to our investments and understanding. Here’s four maps on China’s trade dominance that will help you think differently about the world:

China is the world's #1 trade partner

Connectography

The United States is the number one trading partner for 56 countries, with important relationships throughout North America, South America, and Western Europe.

Meanwhile, China is the top partner for 124 countries, dominating trade in Asia, Eastern Europe, Africa, and Australia.


China's sphere of influence

Stratfor

This map shows the portion of trade conducted by each country with China in Southeast Asia.

The influence that China has with nations in Southeast Asia is significant. Most trade is in double-digit percentages, and China views this as its immediate sphere of influence. Throughout history, territories in this region would even pay tribute to China to gain access to trade.

“In East Asia’s tribute system, China was the superior state, and many of its neighboring states were vassal states, and they maintained a relationship of tribute and rewards,” writes Liu Mingfu in The China Dream, a popular book about China’s plans to return to power.

Maintaining influence in Southeast Asia is part of the reason that Beijing is posturing in the South China Sea. In fact, China’s coastguard is growing so fast that in 10 years it will have more tonnage than all of the coastguards in Southeast Asia, the United States, and Japan combined.

Building a new silk road for Chinese trade

Visual Capitalist

China seeks to increase trade ties with Asia and Europe even further by building a new Silk Road that puts even Marco Polo’s route to shame.

The Chinese transcontinental network, a massive infrastructure project pegged for completion by 2025, is expected to bring down overland travel time from Beijing to London to just two days. Currently, it takes 15 days for the journey.

The project’s aim is to shorten the time of bulk consumer-goods transport to Europe, while unlocking the economic potential behind Eurasian cities from Almaty to Tehran. The new Silk Road will include at least one high-speed line that goes 320 km/h, and the network will help to link up 70% of the world’s population in roughly 40 countries.


Infrastructure override

Reuters

You may have heard of the AIIB (Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank), which was officially launched at the end of last year. Initially proposed by China, the bank now has over a $100 billion of capitalization and 57 founding member states.

While this shows China’s push for infrastructure especially to coincide with its new Silk Road, there is another very interesting detail: Beijing controls 26.06% of the votes, essentially giving it veto power as most bank decisions need 75% of the votes to pass.

In other words, only infrastructure projects that benefit Chinese trade will likely get the nod from Beijing.

We Were Totally Wrong About What's Happening Inside Earth's Mantle

Maddie Stone
Gizmodo
May 9, 2016

Image: Shutterstock

For the first time, geologists have compiled a global map of the wave-like motions called “convective currents” inside Earth’s mantle. They found that those convective currents are moving roughly ten times faster than previously thought. The discovery can help explain everything from how Earth’s surface changes over time to the formation of fossil fuel deposits to long-term climate change.

“In geological terms, the Earth’s surface bobs up and down like a yo-yo,” geologist Mark Hoggard of Cambridge University said in a statement. Hoggard is lead author on a paper published today in Nature Geoscience.

Our planet’s deep interior is an enduring scientific mystery. Having never drilled more than a few miles beneath the surface of the Earth, geologists rely on indirect measurements and models to get a sense of what’s happening further down. The mantle is a nearly 3000 kilometer (2000 mile) layer of gooey, compressed rock, and convective activity within it has a big impact on Earth’s surface.

“In geological terms, the Earth’s surface bobs up and down like a yo-yo.”

“In addition to the normal plate tectonics, the interior of the plates which should be quite boring are being forced up and down by mantle convection,” Hoggard told Gizmodo. “People have known that this occurs for a long time, but for the past 30 years we haven’t had the data to measure it.”

That’s changing, thanks to new high-resolution seismic reflection profiles created by the oil industry. Seismic reflection profiling is a technique geologists use to peer deep into Earth’s crust, by measuring the reflection and refraction of seismic waves as they travel downwards. The method can reveal fine-scale changes in the thickness of the crust, which in turn relates to mantle convection.

By analyzing over 2,000 seismic reflection measurements taken across the world’s oceans, Hoggard and his colleagues constructed the first global database of mantle convection. They were surprised to discover frequent changes in the thickness of seafloor crust, indicating that mantle convection is occurring far more frequently than we thought—think a vigorously bubbling pot of water instead of a slow-churning soup.

This insight into Earth’s deep interior can help explain all sorts of things closer to home. The formation of oil reserves, for instance, relies on the burial and compression of sediments that are chock full of decaying organic matter. “These motions help control how quickly rocks containing organics are buried and cooked into oil,” Hoggard said.

Mantle convection can also have a surprising impact on Earth’s climate, by affecting the large-scale ocean circulation patterns that move heat around the world. The Gulf Stream, for instance, carries warm water from the Gulf of Mexico to the coast of western Europe, before chilling out and sinking around Iceland.

“There are these narrow channels around Iceland that allow water to sink,” Hoggard explained. “If you elevate or depress them, you could really affect ocean circulation.” (Free plot idea for anyone looking to write a 2-in-1 sequel to the The Day After Tomorrow and The Core!)

Finally, mantle convection is responsible for forming geothermal systems, like Yellowstone, and island archipelagos, like Hawaii, that crop up in the middle of tectonic plates. Hoggard’s findings will shed light on how and why parts of the crust located far from plate boundaries are rising, falling, and cooking.

“It’s really a shift in view point,” he said. “A lot of geologists will look at places far away from plate boundaries and think they should be very stable. What we’ve shown is that regions that are often ignored are probably very active.”

What lies below: swarm of earthquakes detected beneath Mount St Helens

Scientists suggest volcano is restoring its stores of magma as rate of earthquakes has been ‘steadily increasing’ and reaching nearly 40 located per week

Mount St Helens last erupted in 2008, after a surprise reawakening in 2004 and several years of sporadic activity. Photograph: Ted S Warren/A




A swarm of more than 130 earthquakes has been detected beneath Mount St Helens over the last eight weeks, according to the US Geological Survey.

Since March, the rate of such earthquakes under the Washington state volcano has been “steadily increasing”, the USGS reported. At its peak, nearly 40 earthquakes have been located per week.

Most of the quakes have occurred about one to four miles beneath the active volcano, and most have been extremely weak at magnitudes of 0.5 or less, the largest a 1.3-level quake.

The USGS said there had been many more earthquakes that have been too small to be felt at the surface or precisely located. A 0.7-level quake “would not be felt if you were standing on the surface above it”, the seismologists wrote.

The quakes do not mean the volcano is any more likely to erupt in the near future, the USGS said, describing the earthquakes as common, “volcano-tectonic in nature [and] indicative of a slip on a small fault”.

They do, though, suggest the volcano is recharging its stores of magma, the scientists said. As the molten rock rises to fill the volcano’s magma chamber, it presses against the colder rock around it, increasing stress. This push and pull creates quakes.

The USGS noted that similar swarms caused minor convulsions beneath Mount St Helens in 2013 and 2014, and that earthquakes swarmed in the 1990s with more energy and at much higher rates.

The seismologists said they had detected “no anomalous gases, increases in ground inflation or shallow seismicity” and “no signs of an imminent eruption”.

“As was observed at Mount St Helens between 1987 [and] 2004, recharge can continue for many years beneath a volcano without an eruption,” they wrote.

Mount St Helens last erupted in 2008, after a surprise reawakening in 2004 andseveral years of sporadic activity. Swarms of earthquakes before the 2004 eruption averaged between magnitudes of two to four.

On 18 May 1980, it erupted to devastating effect, a column of ash reaching 80,000ft and pyroclastic flows of boiling ash, gas and rock cascading off its slopes. Part of the volcano collapsed, ash fell as far away as New Mexico and 57 people died as a result of the eruption.

The volcano is now one of the most closely monitored in the world. Researchers at three universities have placed thousands of sensors around the volcano, to investigate its bowels.

“It’s telling us [that] years to decades from now, St Helens will erupt again,” Seth Moran, scientist-in-chief at the Cascades Volcano Observatory, told local KOIN news.

“Our best long-term forecast is that the next eruption will be a lava dome building eruption, which will have some explosivity to it, but nothing as catastrophic as St Helens in 1980.”

Erik Klemetti, an assistant professor of geosciences at Denison University, noted in Wired magazine that recharging magma can take years.

“It might have been five years between the big recharge event in 1998-99 and the 2004 eruptions,” he said.

The swarms are normal volcanic activity, Klemetti wrote. Magma rising up within the sleeping volcano will have a long path through the remains of past eruptions before it can load Mount St Helens for a new one.

High and Dry: Climate Change, Water, and the Economy

Source: The World Bank

A new World Bank reports finds that water scarcity, exacerbated by climate change, could hinder

economic growth, spur migration, and spark conflict. However, most countries can neutralize the

adverse impacts of water scarcity by taking action to allocate and use water resources more efficiently.

Key Findings

Water scarcity, exacerbated by climate change, could cost some regions up to 6% of their GDP, spur
migration, and spark conflict.

The combined effects of growing populations, rising incomes, and expanding cities will see demand
for water rising exponentially, while supply becomes more erratic and uncertain.

Unless action is taken soon, water will become scarce in regions where it is currently abundant - such
as Central Africa and East Asia - and scarcity will greatly worsen in regions where water is already in
short supply - such as the Middle East and the Sahel in Africa. These regions could see their growth
rates decline by as much as 6% of GDP by 2050 due to water-related impacts on agriculture, health,
and incomes.

Water insecurity could multiply the risk of conflict. Food price spikes caused by droughts can inflame
latent conflicts and drive migration. Where economic growth is impacted by rainfall, episodes of
droughts and floods have generated waves of migration and spikes in violence within countries.

The negative impacts of climate change on water could be neutralized with better policy decisions,
with some regions standing to improve their growth rates by up to 6% with better water resource
management.

Improved water stewardship pays high economic dividends. When governments respond to water
shortages by boosting efficiency and allocating even 25% of water to more highly-valued uses, such
as more efficient agricultural practices, losses decline dramatically and for some regions may even
vanish.

In the world’s extremely dry regions, more far-reaching policies are needed to avoid inefficient water
use. Stronger policies and reforms are needed to cope with deepening climate stresses.

Policies and investments that can help lead countries to more water secure and climate-resilient
economies include:

• Better planning for water resource allocation
• Adoption of incentives to increase water efficiency, and
• Investments in infrastructure for more secure water supplies and availability.

The impact of water scarcity on GDP by 2050, relative to a baseline scenario with no scarcity.

San Andreas fault 'locked, loaded and ready to roll' with big earthquake, expert says

This simulation by the Southern California Earthquake Center shows the shaking that could be felt by Los Angeles during a possible magnitude 8 earthquake on the San Andreas fault. (SCEC)

Rong-Gong Lin IIContact Reporter


Southern California’s section of the San Andreas fault is “locked, loaded and ready to roll,” a leading earthquake scientist said Wednesday at the National Earthquake Conference in Long Beach.

The San Andreas fault is one of California’s most dangerous, and is the state’s longest fault. Yet for Southern California, the last big earthquake to strike the southern San Andreas was in 1857, when a magnitude 7.9 earthquake ruptured an astonishing 185 miles between Monterey County and the San Gabriel Mountains near Los Angeles.
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It has been quiet since then — too quiet, said Thomas Jordan, director of the Southern California Earthquake Center.





Although the Pacific plate is moving northwest relative to North America at about 16 feet, or 5 meters, every 100 years, the southern San Andreas fault has been quiet for more than a century. (Thomas Jordan / Southern California Earthquake Center)

“The springs on the San Andreas system have been wound very, very tight. And the southern San Andreas fault, in particular, looks like it’s locked, loaded and ready to go,” Jordan said in the opening keynote talk.

Other sections of the San Andreas fault also are far overdue for a big quake. Further southeast of the Cajon Pass, such as in San Bernardino County, the fault has not moved substantially since an earthquake in 1812, and further southeast toward the Salton Sea, it has been relatively quiet since about 1680 to 1690.

It could cost $3 billion to prevent disastrous earthquake damage along San Francisco’s Embarcadero

Here’s the problem: Scientists have observed that based on the movement of tectonic plates, with the Pacific plate moving northwest of the North American plate, earthquakes should be relieving about 16 feet of accumulated plate movement every 100 years. Yet the San Andreas has not relieved stress that has been building up for more than a century.

Jordan said it’s important that California focus on becoming resilient to a potential huge earthquake, one as strong as a magnitude 8. He praised Los Angeles’ plan to require earthquake retrofits on apartment and concrete buildings, pushed into law by Mayor Eric Garcetti.

“It’s remarkable that this happened,” Jordan said. “We know politically how difficult it is to make these kinds of changes.”

Other areas of focus have included strengthening Los Angeles’ vulnerable aqueduct systems and its telecommunications networks.

Two active Southern California faults may cause a Big One by rupturing together

A 2008 U.S. Geological Survey report warned that a magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas fault would cause more than 1,800 deaths, 50,000 injuries, $200 billion in damage and severe, long-lasting disruptions. Among the predicted problems: The sewer system could be out of commission for six months.

Such an earthquake could cause shaking for nearly two minutes, with the strongest shaking in the Coachella Valley, Inland Empire and Antelope Valley, but it also could send pockets of strong shaking into areas where sediments trap shaking waves, such as the San Gabriel Valley and East Los Angeles.

The devastating potential of the fault became clear with a 1857 temblor, which had an estimated magnitude of 7.9. It became known as the Fort Tejon quake. The name is something of a misnomer because it started farther north, way up in Parkfield in Monterey County. The quake then barreled south on the San Andreas for about 185 miles, through Fort Tejon near the northern edge of Los Angeles County, then east toward the Cajon Pass in San Bernardino County, near what is now the 15 Freeway.

The quake was so powerful that the soil liquefied, causing trees as far away as Stockton to sink. Trees were also uprooted west of Fort Tejon. The shaking lasted 1 to 3 minutes.

Even though the San Andreas fault does not go directly into Los Angeles — it is 30 miles away from downtown — the city is expected to be heavily shaken by a large earthquake on that fault. For instance, simulations of a possible magnitude 7.8 quake on the San Andreas fault that begins at the Salton Sea and spreads west toward the San Gabriel mountains show seismic shaking waves "bent into the Los Angeles area," Jordan said. One video shows strong ground-shaking stretching from northern San Diego County to Barstow.

Simulated shaking from a possible magnitude-7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas fault.

Using the world's largest supercomputer at the time, the Southern California Earthquake Center in 2010 unveiled a simulated magnitude 8 earthquake that begins in Monterey County, like in 1857, but travels even farther south, heading toward the Mexican border. The L.A. Basin and the San Fernando Valley would be hit hard because the shaking would be trapped by soft soils in the valley and basin.





The simulated shaking from a possible magnitude-8 earthquake on the San Andreas fault.

"You can see that this area of influence by the shaking has now expanded out to huge proportions," Jordan said. "You see that big directivity pulse out in front, as that energy is being shoved down that fault, that directivity pulse leads energy into seismic waves that excite the sedimentary basins, like the San Fernando Valley and the Los Angeles Basin," and through San Bernardino, Jordan said.

"You'll notice large shaking in the Los Angeles region persisting for long periods of time," he said.

ron.lin@latimes.com

Mother Nature and her fascinating weather formations.

Thanks to my friend DVJ for these.
How many of these terms are you familiar with??

1. Brinicle




Brinicles are the underwater equivalent of icicles.

They form beneath ice when a flow of saline water is introduced to ocean water.


2. Volcanic lightning




Volcanic plumes produce immense amounts of electrical charge and static.

In rare cases, this can spark a violent lightning storm.


3. Sprites, Elves and Blue Jets




These colourful shapes are the result of electrical discharges in the atmosphere.


4. Fire Rainbows




Fire Rainbows are formed by light reflecting from ice crystals in high level clouds.

The halos are so large, they often appear parallel to the horizon.



5. White rainbows





These rainbows form in fog, rather than rain.

The condensation reflects little light, and as a result, the rainbow is made up of very weak colors – like white – rather than the vibrant colors of a traditional rainbow





6. Fire Whirls




Fire whirls are whirlwinds of flame.

They occur when intense heat and turbulent wind conditions combine.




7. Catatumbo Lightning




At the mouth of the Catatumbo River in Venezuela, a very unique mass of storm clouds swirl, creating the rare spectacle known as Catatumbo lightning. The storm occurs up to 160 nights a year, 10 hours per day and 280 times an hour.


8. Moonbow





Moonbows are rainbows produced by light reflected off the surface of the moon, rather than the sun.

Due to the small amount of light reflected off the moon, moonbows are quite faint.


9. Glory




A glory is an optical phenomenon, similar to a rainbow, that resembles a halo.

It occurs when light tunnels through air inside rain droplets and emit the light backwards. Yes, that’s as crazy as it sounds


10. Waterspouts




Waterspouts are vortexes, which occur over a body of water.

No water is sucked in and the sprout is made entirely from water given off by condensation.


11. Morning Glory




Morning Glory clouds are incredibly rare, so much so, that we don’t know what causes them.

They’re most commonly seen at fall in the small town of Burketown in Australia.




12. Lenticular Clouds




Lenticular clouds are lens-shaped clouds that form when moist air flows over a mountain and piles into large and layered clouds.

Due to their strange shape, these clouds are often mistaken for UFOs


13. Penitentes




Penitentes are tall, thin blades of hardened snow and ice that form at high altitudes.

At such a height, the sun’s rays are able to turn ice into water vapor without melting it first.

Some areas randomly turn into vapor more quickly than others, forming depressions in the smooth surface.

Over time, they transform into jagged fields which face the same direction as the sun.


14. Supercells




Supercells are the rarest and most dangerous type of storms.

While they are formed just like other storms, the vertical rotation of their updraft means that they can sustain themselves for far longer.


15. Frost Flowers




Frost flowers are formed when sap in the stem of plants freezes and expands, cracking the stem.

Water then draws through the cracks and freezes upon contact with the air, eventually forming exquisite patterns.


16. Sun Dogs




Sun dogs are an atmospheric phenomenon that occur when ice crystals cause light to appear brighter when the sun is at a certain angle


17. Mammatus Clouds




Mammatus clouds are cloud pouches that form and hang underneath the base of a cloud.

When air and clouds holding different levels of moisture mix, the heavier one sinks below the lighter.


18. Snow Donuts




Snow donuts are formed when chunks of snow are blown along the ground by wind, picking up material along the way.

The inner layers are weak and can easily blow away, leaving a donut.


19. Belt of Venus




The Belt of Venus is a pink glowing arch seen across the sky when the shadow of the Earth’s translucent atmosphere casts a shadow back upon itself.


20. Asperatus Clouds





Asperatus Clouds were only classified in 2009. As a result, we know little about them other than the fact that they look amazing.


Would you have known any of them if the names were not already above the pictures?